Primer on 1963Macro
The process behind 1963Macro’s macro, geo, and market analysis.
Welcome to 1963Macro!
Most macro writing you see online starts with a take and works backwards.
We work the other way around.
1963Macro exists to answer one question: What is the highest‑probability path from here, given the world as it actually is — not as the headlines, narratives, or any one individual wishes it were?
To get there, we follow a simple but demanding process:
Collect. Begin with open‑source information: flow data, inventory and storage analysis, policy statements, data feeds, credible sell‑side work, and ground‑level reporting.
Frame. Seek historical examples and analogs.
Decipher. Sit with those pieces until the mechanics make sense: who really has leverage, where the constraints are, how the plumbing actually works. This happens in long, iterative internal notes intended to pressure‑test assumptions from multiple angles.
Eureka. At some point there is a clean “ah ha” moment — a base‑case map that ties geopolitics, economics, policy, and markets into one coherent path with clear failure points.
Draft. The longform pieces you see here are not us thinking out loud in public. They are the formal write‑up of a framework already broken apart and rebuilt multiple times.
Refine. Edit for clarity, strip out unnecessary speculation, and ask a final question: Does this actually reduce noise for a serious investor or decision‑maker?
Deliver. Publish only once the read is clear and the failure points are explicit.
The result is that you won’t see a new article every time there’s a headline or a CPI print — though you will see shorter notes when we find something particularly high‑signal or relevant to our existing modeling.
You will see denser pieces that:
Start from structure (what is physically and politically true right now),
Build a base‑case path from that structure, and
Spell out what would falsify that path, so you know what to watch.
This approach is visible across our work. Some pieces, for example, treat the Iran conflict as an event the market has already internalized and focus instead on how that shock propagates through inventories, refining margins, Scott Bessent’s “3 dollar gas” window, and the timing of US–China negotiations. Others use the same lens to answer questions like who really bears the cost when European refining margins turn negative, or how funding markets and term premia signal that a macro thesis has broken.
If that’s the kind of work you want more of — fewer hot takes, more grounded, falsifiable analysis — you’re in the right place.
Welcome!
To successful navigation of the grand chessboard,
1963Macro