Yesterday, Iranian Supreme Leader Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei issued a notably lengthy statement via official Iranian channels with the full statement included below this article. Supreme Leader Khamenei has issued many statements since assuming his role earlier this year following the death of his father in coalition airstrikes. This particular iteration arrived on a religious calendar date, which is not an accident, but it was not consistent with historical, routine holiday greetings. It was long, inward-facing at the decisive points, and it carried a message that aligns with what this publication has tracked since before the conflict began.
Specifically, the statement opened with the following:
“Muhammad, the Messenger of God, and those who are with him are firm against the disbelievers and merciful among themselves” (Holy Quran 48:29).
That verse set the table for the balance of the announcement, which called for unity among Muslim nations and particularly those in West Asia:
“The solution to the Islamic Ummah’s problems lies in maintaining unity, friendship, and cooperation in the pursuit of goodness and virtue. The criminal rulers of the US and the illegitimate Zionist regime are the sworn enemies of this unity and friendship. They aren’t just the enemies of the Islamic Republic, the Iranian nation, and the vast front of Islamic Resistance. Rather, they hold an enmity toward the entire Islamic Ummah, including the nations in West Asia and North Africa. In this regard, not even the rulers of these countries – many of whom are considered to be their allies – are exempt, and the blatant disrespect and derogatory remarks of the leaders of Global Arrogance directed toward certain leaders of Islamic countries are still fresh in your memory and ours.
The important lesson of unity and avoiding discord is the first lesson of the school of Islam on the discussion of how to deal with friends and foes. But the second lesson is to defend one another against disbelief. And the third lesson includes various forms of cooperation and synergy in the diverse material and spiritual spheres of Muslims’ lives – in terms of wealth, security, science, and progress. The ultimate outcome of this will be the attainment of the New Islamic Civilization.
Therefore, the Muslims’ unity is the main cornerstone for achieving an exalted, triumphant Islamic civilization. This conceptual, intellectual package – in which our aspiration for the Islamic world resides – has materialized in our dear Iran to an acceptable degree. Once again, this humble servant’s recommendation to the entire nation is that you mustn’t allow any division whatsoever to emerge between you.”
In essence, these comments advocate unity across the Muslim world such that aggressors, or “disbelievers,” are no longer a threat to the goal of a “New Islamic Civilization.” Calls for unity happen often, globally, which can make the statement look unremarkable when read in isolation on a holiday specifically intended to sow unity. The referenced themes are also not new, and have been repeated in various forms for years. What makes this statement notable is the context, the timing, the length, and what the words suggest in practice against the current backdrop.
Background before we go further. Unity Week messaging is a familiar instrument in the Islamic Republic. In ordinary years it is typically a relatively compact greeting: congratulations on the Prophet’s birthday, the same Quranic pairing of firmness toward outsiders and mercy among Muslims, an appeal to shared ground between Sunni and Shia, and generally combined as a call for cooperation among Islamic states. The political content is usually present, but it is brief and conventional. Yesterday’s letter used that wrapper and then kept going. It interrogated Gulf rulers, named the United States and Israel as sworn enemies of Muslim friendship, walked through defense against disbelief as a standing duty, and closed by telling Iranians not to allow any division among themselves. That is the signal. The holiday provided the platform.
For weeks, Iranian authorities have worked to keep the domestic picture as orderly as possible, treated shortage as a test of resolve, and to hold public support together by framing endurance as strength. This letter fits that messaging. A short blessing would have been enough if the only task were the calendar, but he went further because the regime’s problem is not a lack of holiday language. The problem is a public being asked to treat empty pumps and collapsing purchasing power as proof of righteousness, while visible civilian officials continue pointing at the cost of resistance.
To wit, the statement came as President Pezeshkian has been unusually blunt about Iran’s economic problems over the prior weeks. He has publicly called out fuel shortages, inflation running in the high tens of percent with staple prices in some cases near or above a doubling, severe currency devaluation, and the inability of residents to meet basic needs, and pushed hard for a return to the “MOU” or further negotiations. We have covered Pezeshkian’s path to office and the circumstances of his ascension, and we have wondered if the IRGC now regrets backing a more moderate public face to ease internal tensions, only to watch that posture rebound into open talk of ending hostilities, negotiations, and deals that would leave the Iranian people materially better off while reducing the IRGC’s room to operate consistent with their desires both inside Iran and around the region.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has also been vocal about the economic war the public is living through. He is not a second Pezeshkian. He is an establishment figure with IRGC roots, and his recent line has been that livelihoods matter and that officials should heed the Leader on unity. That combination still matters. When the president talks openly about pain and a deal, and when other visible officials are forced to acknowledge the same wreckage, the IRGC is left managing a story it can no longer fully seal. Despite the rhetoric over time, the thing the IRGC tends to fear most is its own population. The security-ideological core is a minority of Iranian society. The balance may be Muslim, or largely so, but many care more about being able to eat, find work, get fuel, and live with some security. Civilian officials know this, and their statements speak to those needs. The hardline core is not indifferent to those needs so much as it is more committed to regime survival and long-term IRGC causes. That creates a mismatch in how much pain each side will tolerate, and the gap widens when Iranian leadership says out loud that negotiation, not more endurance, is how people get bread.
That is why the Supreme Leader’s letter should be read with the rest of the week, not as a self-contained sermon. A separate Government Week message had already declared that anything detrimental to social cohesion was prohibited. Executions of dissenters and protesters have been underway for months, and they remain the reminder that “division” is not a metaphor. The Supreme Leader then capped the line in the only form still available to him: a long signed text that names the external enemy and tells Iranians not to allow any division among themselves. His message did not need to go as far as he did if the point were only the Prophet’s birthday. The extra length, in this case, was is aimed at what is actually stressing the system.
Why does this matter?
Plainly, it means the IRGC is doing precisely what we have discussed for months: digging in, remaining defiant, placing ideology ahead of near-term monetary relief, and tightening on those who dissent from the leadership’s perspective. Now directly from the Supreme Leader.
It also means diplomacy is de facto dead as a public path, even if some channel can always be kept open in the dark. The United States has rebuffed Pezeshkian’s latest commentary regarding a return to the “MOU” for a simple reason: He cannot unilaterally close a deal. He has no standing to bind the people who hold the guns and the veto power. His “pursue diplomacy” stance is now almost impossible to advance without saying why the fight is failing, and saying that is precisely what the new unity line treats as aid to the enemy. You cannot argue for a settlement without arguing that more war, more blockade, and more “strength” are not working. Under this message, that argument is the crack they have forbidden.
The effect is subsequently chilling by design. The Supreme Leader’s statement, and the orders around it, do not have to indict the president in order to constrain him. They only have to make division the unforgivable category, making further discussion of talks, deals, or peace that is not found on the IRGC’s terms politically toxic. Logically, that is the point: keep internal disagreement from widening, and keep a broader rupture from arriving.
Putting the pieces together, recall that last week President Trump said negotiations were “not happening” and that diplomacy was effectively dead. Pakistan and others tried to hope early last week regarding “progress” toward negotiation, but by midweek those words looked hollow. A deal would still be better for Iran and for the world financially, and better for regional peace, but it will not be accepted if the result is that the IRGC cannot continue in current form. The room for a negotiated settlement therefore becomes narrow at best, and non-existent in practice unless the security core can sell the outcome as the other side’s submission. President Trump and other administration officials appear to have acknowledged this before the Supreme Leader issued the most recent statement, which suggests that while the comments came yesterday, the understanding had been building for some time.
This all brings us back to our base case. Any deal that works in practice has to be made with the IRGC and the apex around it, because they hold the functional levers of power inside Iran. President Trump gave material time for diplomacy, and on review also provided ample room for the more moderate civilian voices to work both publicly and privately inside Iran and round the Middle East. The aim, it appears, was to move the needle toward an agreement that would leave the IRGC without coercive influence over the region, the Strait, proxies, or other aligned causes. In exchange, Iran would have received significant compensation, sanctions relief, and likely FDI to help rebuild and improve the economy for the Iranian people. As we have tracked for months, money is not the sole motivator for the IRGC as operating in that manner is in conflict with their stated purpose, mission, and goals.
For those of us who observe the conflict, we can reasonably take the perspective that diplomacy is not going to be an available lever in the near term. That does not mean we return immediately to full-scale conflict. However, it does suggest that whether the next move comes from Iran or the United States, the stalemate will likely have to be broken by breaking something, leaving this conflict far from resolution absent a material change in position by the Supreme Leader, his advisors, or IRGC leadership.
None of which currently reads as high-probability.
The full text of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s statement below for reference in italics.
Disclaimer: This note is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or legal advice. The information contained herein is based on current market observations and analysis, which are subject to change without notice. All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal. We do not provide personalized recommendations, and readers should conduct their own due diligence or consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
Full text of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s statement:
“In the Name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful
“Muhammad, the Messenger of God, and those who are with him are firm against the disbelievers and merciful among themselves” (Holy Quran 48:29).
I extend my congratulations to the noble nation of Iran and the great Islamic Ummah on the occasion of the auspicious birth anniversary of the Great Luminary, the Noblest of Creation, the Radiant Lamp, God’s Chosen One, the City of Knowledge, the Mercy to the Worlds, the Honorable Messenger of Islam (PBUH), and the auspicious birth anniversary of his pure and virtuous child, the definitive Proof of God, Imam Ja’far Sadiq (PBUH).
From the moment the sun of the Last Prophet’s existence rose in Holy Mecca, the horizon of human salvation, which is contingent upon perfecting servitude and obedience to the Exalted and Almighty, gained a renewed brilliance. The souls of the prophets, the angels of God, and the holy ones were immersed in joy, while the devils among humans and jinn bit their fingers in rage, regret, and sorrow. This was because the greatest of God’s creation throughout all the countless realms of existence had stepped on the earth, soon to be vested with the mantle of prophethood and the seal of the prophets. Holding the magnificent Quran and tasked with the mission of the comprehensive guidance of humanity, he was to direct the movement of humanity’s great caravan toward servitude to God and spiritual perfection in the journey to Him.
The life of the Prophet and the lives of his infallible successors are all lessons for guidance and servitude; lessons in spiritual understanding and love; lessons in faith and jihad; lessons in living and both individual and social ethics; lessons in trustworthiness and honesty; lessons in honor and dignity; lessons in knowledge and action; lessons in mercy and decisiveness; lessons in justice and equity; and lessons in unity and brotherhood. The better these lessons are learned and acted upon, the more attainable the peaks of prosperity and bliss become for all of humankind. We believe that the immaculate soul of the Prophet of Mercy, as well as the pure souls of his immaculate successors and the immaculate Proofs of God (peace and blessings be upon him and all of them) are always watching, guiding, and compassionate with regard to the situation of the Muslims and the Islamic society. Whenever a mistake is committed by the children of this kind and noble father, his soul is grieved. And whenever Muslims act in accord with his lessons and instructions, his blessed heart rejoices.
Now, after passing through difficult, turbulent times and having traversed numerous ups and downs from the early dawn of Islam to the present time, Islam and its followers have reached a fateful, decisive juncture. Today, Muslims can play a highly effective, fateful role. Today is a time when the prospect of the ultimate triumph of truth over falsehood, and of Islam over disbelief, has come much closer to becoming a reality than any other time.
The first prerequisite [to reaching this critical objective] is the unity of the Muslims. The Muslims’ unity in the face of the world’s disbelief is a Quranic strategy and a basic teaching of the pure Islam of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH). This isn’t a superficial or transient matter. By unity, what is meant is that at the level of the general public in Islamic societies, commonalities must serve as the core and foundation for everyone. Naturally, efforts must be made that are backed by logical reasoning and that observe all the requirements of brotherhood and camaraderie, exactly as understood from the teachings of the Quran, to transform points of difference into a common ground in an atmosphere of complete peace and harmony.
What is certain is that all Muslims in the various Islamic societies must keep the Quranic principle “firm against the disbelievers and merciful among themselves” at the center of their thought, speech, and action when facing disbelief in the world. It is with this approach that Islamic unity and solidarity are achieved. Whenever either of these two aspects of this heavenly message is separated from the actions of the Muslims, they will likewise be removed from the position of honor that they had rightfully attained in the Medina of Islam. And this is an inviolable rule.
This principle is one of the fundamental tenets and core messages of the Islamic Revolution. Unity Week was celebrated for the first time in Esfand 1356 AHS (February–March 1978) during the time of the uprising against the tyrannical Pahlavi regime, when our illustrious, martyred Leader (may God elevate his noble station) proposed this concept while he was in exile in Iranshahr. This suggestion was welcomed by both the Shia and Sunnis. Because of the foresight of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Imam Khomeini (may God sanctify his noble soul), “Unity Week” was officially established shortly after the victory of the Islamic Revolution. By the grace of Almighty God, this issue of unity throughout the entire Muslim nation has a successful model in the Iranian people, and the machinations of enemies have had little effect in undermining it.
However, ill-wishers are always lurking to target this great blessing. What makes them hopeful is highlighting differences. Although ideological and religious differences are a major part of what the enemies of Islam are seeking – and on which they heavily rely – they won’t stop there. They strive to turn every kind of racial, cultural, social, economic, political, and geographical difference into a pretext for sowing division among the Muslims in Iran and in every other Islamic country.
Their goal is to see the fragmentation of the Islamic Ummah and the erosion of its strength, as they wait for an opportune moment to impose their dominance over it. The command of the Holy Quran in such matters may be seen in the noble verse, “And do not dispute, or you will lose heart and lose your power” (8:46). Therefore, anyone in any position who does an action that leads to a division among the Muslims and creates strife within the Islamic community – whether this is done knowingly or unknowingly, intentionally or unintentionally – has advanced the agenda of the enemies of Islam.
And in this day and age, how could anyone attribute such an act to just ignorance or negligence, when the evil taghuts [tyrants] of the world – at the forefront of whom stands the criminal US – have stripped the deceptive, flimsy masks from the hideous face of their colonial objectives and arrogant, domineering plots? They have removed their deceptive, velvet gloves and exposed their blood-stained claws to the entire world.
It’s now time for Muslims to think and examine events with a more careful scrutiny. If the Muslims had been a single, united hand, which is clenching its fist with firm resolve, would the Palestinian nation have been left so defenseless in this way and subjected to the oppression and crimes of the occupiers? And if the nations and governments, which are on the shores of the Persian Gulf, had firmly established their unity under the banner of Islam, would corrupt, unprincipled scoundrels have dared to covet their lands and wealth from thousands of kilometers away?
My repeated, emphatic recommendation to the rulers of Islamic countries, particularly those in the West Asian region and along the Persian Gulf, is that you must know who your true enemy is, understand their plots, and confront them.
The solution to the Islamic Ummah’s problems lies in maintaining unity, friendship, and cooperation in the pursuit of goodness and virtue. The criminal rulers of the US and the illegitimate Zionist regime are the sworn enemies of this unity and friendship. They aren’t just the enemies of the Islamic Republic, the Iranian nation, and the vast front of Islamic Resistance. Rather, they hold an enmity toward the entire Islamic Ummah, including the nations in West Asia and North Africa. In this regard, not even the rulers of these countries – many of whom are considered to be their allies – are exempt, and the blatant disrespect and derogatory remarks of the leaders of Global Arrogance directed toward certain leaders of Islamic countries are still fresh in your memory and ours.
The important lesson of unity and avoiding discord is the first lesson of the school of Islam on the discussion of how to deal with friends and foes. But the second lesson is to defend one another against disbelief. And the third lesson includes various forms of cooperation and synergy in the diverse material and spiritual spheres of Muslims’ lives – in terms of wealth, security, science, and progress. The ultimate outcome of this will be the attainment of the New Islamic Civilization.
Therefore, the Muslims’ unity is the main cornerstone for achieving an exalted, triumphant Islamic civilization. This conceptual, intellectual package – in which our aspiration for the Islamic world resides – has materialized in our dear Iran to an acceptable degree. Once again, this humble servant’s recommendation to the entire nation is that you mustn’t allow any division whatsoever to emerge between you.
In conclusion, I hope that through the intercession of the Holy Messenger and his pure Progeny (PBUH), the shield of God’s compassionate, blessed grace will be cast over Islamic societies. And, under the aegis of acting in accord with the divine commands, may Islamic societies scale the heights to progress and honor day by day even more than before.
May God’s greetings, mercy, and blessings be upon you.
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei”