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The Crescendo, Not the Conclusion
Improved tanker flow in Hormuz is the very thing that may force Iran to strike.
20 hrs ago
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1963macro
1
2
The Tell Was the Size of the Salvo
Iran can still shoot. It is no longer running the board, and the United States is now demonstrably winning in Iran.
Sep 1
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1963macro
4
3
You May Not Say It Is Failing
A long letter, a forbidden category, and a system that will not trade ideology for bread.
Sep 1
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1963macro
1
August 2026
Economic D-Day, Beach Only
Economic D-Day landed. The breakout hasn’t and credibility is becoming a scarce asset. BACO?
Aug 27
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1963macro
1
2
The Path of Least Resistance That Isn’t
U.S. diplomacy, Pezeshkian’s limits, and the rising odds of further conflict.
Aug 24
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1963macro
2
3
Japan, China, and the Escalation Trap
Why the Treasury market is now an integral part of the Iran endgame.
Aug 12
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1963macro
9
4
The IRGC’s Escalation Trap
Iran, not the United States, is the one caught in the escalation trap — a point still missing from most coverage.
Aug 10
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1963macro
2
2
U.S. Playbook: The One-Trick Pony
Three rounds of strike threats, zero follow-through, and a strategy Iran has already priced suggests the United States is now steering towards retreat.
Aug 2
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1963macro
3
4
Treasury Sees the Transmission
Escalation, Japan’s cracked foundation, and the residual that now sets the cost if the U.S. proceeds with the publicly discussed strikes against Iran.
Aug 1
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1963macro
4
4
July 2026
Degrade the IRGC or Accept the Outcome
The Western professional class consensus can't compute there is no durable middle path between those two poles.
Jul 30
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1963macro
3
3
No Offramp: Why April Likely Won't Repeat
The structural reasons this round of the Iran conflict is different—and why escalation remains the most likely outcome going forward.
Jul 24
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1963macro
3
3
Vision 2030 vs. the IRGC: A Hidden Driver of the Iran Conflict
Why Saudi Arabia’s Long-Term Bet Makes Full De-Escalation Less Likely
Jul 19
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1963macro
5
3
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